2021-12-31 07:23:51 来源:参考消息网 责任编辑:汤立斌
核心提示:明年的挑战是要重新设计和设想我们的规则和制度,同时注意在工作、政治、公共卫生和经济政策等领域重建信任,借此向前迈进。

参考消息网12月31日报道 After a year in which people longed to get back to “normal,” it is now clear that COVID-19 will not make this possible. The pandemic, now heading into its third year, has profoundly affected individuals, communities, countries,and international cooperation, creating four tough challenges for 2022. Rebuilding trust will be critical to confronting all of them.

The first challenge is that people's relationship to work has changed. In some countries, lockdowns, the death of loved ones, and the general uncertainty of the pandemic have prompted or accelerated a rethink. In the United States, the number of workers quitting their jobs exceeded four million in each month from July to October 2021. The pandemic has deepened the divide between those who can work from home and the many who cannot.

In 2022, people need to trust that going back to work will genuinely improve their lives. Getting to that point will require action by both governments and companies.

The second challenge in 2022 is to stem the global trend toward authoritarianism. In Mauritania, according to the Freedom House report, ministers of the ruling party misused COVID-19 funds. In 2020, the prime minister and entire cabinet resigned. In the United Kingdom, Conservative Party members and supporters were given special “fast-track” access to bid for contracts to supply personal protective equipment.

In dozens of countries worldwide, elections have been postponed or canceled, or certified results have been questioned. In 2022, citizens will need to find ways to hold their leaders accountable and to rebuild institutions and public trust.

The third challenge the world faces in 2022 is another pandemic. Although it is easy to think that COVID-19 eclipses all other public-health emergencies in our lifetime, our current focus must not blind us to other threats from infectious diseases.

Finally, COVID-19 is transforming the economic rulebook for 2022. Economic nationalism is rising, accelerated by countries' experiences trying to procure equipment, treatments, and vaccines. Add to this the desire to achieve net-zero emissions targets, and the result likely will be a proliferation of industrial policies, more protectionist trade measures, and greater skepticism toward foreign investors - all against a backdrop of tighter monetary policy and rising government debt.

The global economic challenges for 2022 are sobering. But even at the height of the Cold War, basic international agreements and institutions of mutual restraint were possible thanks to patient negotiation and arrangements that gave assurances to both sides. Trust is not a panacea to rising international tension, but a modicum of it, backed by broadly credible institutions, will be vital to contain that tension.

The challenge for the coming year is to move forward by redesigning and reimagining our rules and institutions with an eye toward reestablishing trust in the domains of work, politics, public health, and economic policy.

过去的一年,人们渴望回归“正常”。现在很清楚了,新冠病毒打消了这种可能性。这场大流行病正在进入第三个年头,它对个人、社区、国家和国际合作产生了深刻影响,为2022年制造了四个严峻挑战。要应对这四个挑战,重建信任至关重要。

参考消息网12月31日报道 After a year in which people longed to get back to “normal,” it is now clear that COVID-19 will not make this possible. The pandemic, now heading into its third year, has profoundly affected individuals, communities, countries,and international cooperation, creating four tough challenges for 2022. Rebuilding trust will be critical to confronting all of them.

The first challenge is that people's relationship to work has changed. In some countries, lockdowns, the death of loved ones, and the general uncertainty of the pandemic have prompted or accelerated a rethink. In the United States, the number of workers quitting their jobs exceeded four million in each month from July to October 2021. The pandemic has deepened the divide between those who can work from home and the many who cannot.

In 2022, people need to trust that going back to work will genuinely improve their lives. Getting to that point will require action by both governments and companies.

The second challenge in 2022 is to stem the global trend toward authoritarianism. In Mauritania, according to the Freedom House report, ministers of the ruling party misused COVID-19 funds. In 2020, the prime minister and entire cabinet resigned. In the United Kingdom, Conservative Party members and supporters were given special “fast-track” access to bid for contracts to supply personal protective equipment.

In dozens of countries worldwide, elections have been postponed or canceled, or certified results have been questioned. In 2022, citizens will need to find ways to hold their leaders accountable and to rebuild institutions and public trust.

The third challenge the world faces in 2022 is another pandemic. Although it is easy to think that COVID-19 eclipses all other public-health emergencies in our lifetime, our current focus must not blind us to other threats from infectious diseases.

Finally, COVID-19 is transforming the economic rulebook for 2022. Economic nationalism is rising, accelerated by countries' experiences trying to procure equipment, treatments, and vaccines. Add to this the desire to achieve net-zero emissions targets, and the result likely will be a proliferation of industrial policies, more protectionist trade measures, and greater skepticism toward foreign investors - all against a backdrop of tighter monetary policy and rising government debt.

The global economic challenges for 2022 are sobering. But even at the height of the Cold War, basic international agreements and institutions of mutual restraint were possible thanks to patient negotiation and arrangements that gave assurances to both sides. Trust is not a panacea to rising international tension, but a modicum of it, backed by broadly credible institutions, will be vital to contain that tension.

The challenge for the coming year is to move forward by redesigning and reimagining our rules and institutions with an eye toward reestablishing trust in the domains of work, politics, public health, and economic policy.

过去的一年,人们渴望回归“正常”。现在很清楚了,新冠病毒打消了这种可能性。这场大流行病正在进入第三个年头,它对个人、社区、国家和国际合作产生了深刻影响,为2022年制造了四个严峻挑战。要应对这四个挑战,重建信任至关重要。

第一个挑战是人们与工作的关系改变了。在一些国家,封锁措施、亲人离世和疫情整体上的不确定性促使或加快了人们的反思。在美国,2021年7月到10月,每月的离职劳动者人数超过400万。这场大流行病加深了能在家工作者与不能在家工作者之间的鸿沟。

2022年,人们需要相信重返工作岗位真的会改善生活。做到这一点需要政府和企业共同行动。

2022年的第二个挑战是遏制全球转向“独裁主义”的趋势。根据自由之家的报告,在毛里塔尼亚,执政党的部长们滥用抗疫资金。2020年,总理和内阁全体成员辞职。在英国,保守党成员和支持者能够通过特殊的“快速通道”竞标个人防护设备供应合同。

在全球数十个国家,选举或推迟或取消,或者认证结果遭到质疑。2022年,各国公民需要想办法让领导人承担起责任,同时重建制度和公众信任。

世界在2022年面临的第三个挑战是再出现一场大流行病。虽然我们容易认为新冠肺炎让我们有生之年的其他所有公共卫生紧急事件都显得没那么严重,但我们绝不能因为目前的关注焦点而忽视其他传染病威胁。

最后,新冠肺炎将改变2022年的经济规则。经济民族主义正在兴起,各国努力获取设备、疗法和疫苗的经历加速了这一进程。除此之外还有实现净零排放目标的愿望,其结果很可能是产业政策大量涌现、贸易保护主义措施增多以及对外国投资者的怀疑加剧,而这一切的发生背景是货币政策收紧和政府债务增加。

2022年的全球经济挑战令人警醒。但即使在冷战最激烈的时候,由于耐心的谈判和让双方获得保证的安排,基本的国际协议和相互约束的制度仍得以实现。信任不是阻止国际紧张局势加剧的灵丹妙药,但只要有大致可信的制度予以支撑,一点点信任就会对遏制紧张局势产生关键影响。

明年的挑战是要重新设计和设想我们的规则和制度,同时注意在工作、政治、公共卫生和经济政策等领域重建信任,借此向前迈进。(作者为牛津大学布拉瓦特尼克政府学院院长,卿松竹译自12月21日世界报业辛迪加网站)

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