2022-03-12 02:10:02 来源:参考消息网 责任编辑:黄晋一
核心提示:千禧一代正在成长。疫情期间远离办公室使他们更迫切地想安定下来,积累成年人该有的物品。

参考消息网3月12日报道

Millennials Are Finally Spending Like Grown-ups

千禧一代终于像成年人一样花钱了

Millennials are growing up. After spending years splashing out on everything from skydiving excursions to Instagrammable vacations in Peru, 30-somethings with decent-paying jobs are making lasting purchases, buying cars, houses and everything inside them. The retreat from offices during the pandemic has only cemented the urge to settle down and accumulate the trappings of adulthood.

While COVID-era disruptions have been the primary trigger of the rapid price increases in consumer goods, a long-delayed, demographics-driven shift in spending is also underway, one that could help fuel inflation long after the supply-chain wrinkles are ironed out and the pandemic subsides.

Consider the untapped capacity for spending. After the global financial crisis, millennials saddled with student debt famously moved into their parents' basements, pushed off marriage and delayed having children, if they decided to have them at all. Just 47.9 per cent of U.S. millennials — the 72 million people born between 1981 and 1996 —owned homes in 2020, according to Apartment List analysis of census data.

For many, marriage and kids came eventually. But the pandemic was a watershed moment. Millennials flush with savings or simply desperate for space finally started making long-term acquisitions. Last year, the cohort accounted for more than half of home-purchase loan applications and bought more new cars than any other age group.

The key factor that could affect inflation isn't just demand but the size of the millennial population, which outpaced baby boomers in 2019 to become the largest U.S. generation. For years, the dominant macroeconomic themes have been deflationary: aging,fewer babies and automation. Those forces aren't going away, but we could see a multiyear spurt of spending driven by millennials.

One question may be whether millennials really have more money to spend, or whether they simply feel wealthier after two years of spectacular paper gains. “People who have money feel wealthy even though it's not realized wealth,” said Dan Ariely,a professor of psychology and behavioral economics at Duke University. “That's adding to the willingness to spend on all kinds of things.”

Millennials' spending spree won't last forever. In a decade, when the first wave turns 50, increased savings will help push interest rates lower, said Linda Nazareth, an economist and host of the podcast “Work and the Future.” By that point, the oldest Gen Zers will be in their prime homebuying years. Given the severity of the COVID downturn, their entry into financial adulthood could be just as delayed as the generation before them.

千禧一代正在成长。这些年来,从高空跳伞之行到适合在Instagram上晒照的秘鲁之旅,他们凡事都大手大脚。而现在,收入不错的30多岁年轻人把钱花在持久的东西上,购买汽车、房子和房子里面的一切。疫情期间远离办公室使他们更迫切地想安定下来,积累成年人该有的物品。

参考消息网3月12日报道

Millennials Are Finally Spending Like Grown-ups

千禧一代终于像成年人一样花钱了

Millennials are growing up. After spending years splashing out on everything from skydiving excursions to Instagrammable vacations in Peru, 30-somethings with decent-paying jobs are making lasting purchases, buying cars, houses and everything inside them. The retreat from offices during the pandemic has only cemented the urge to settle down and accumulate the trappings of adulthood.

While COVID-era disruptions have been the primary trigger of the rapid price increases in consumer goods, a long-delayed, demographics-driven shift in spending is also underway, one that could help fuel inflation long after the supply-chain wrinkles are ironed out and the pandemic subsides.

Consider the untapped capacity for spending. After the global financial crisis, millennials saddled with student debt famously moved into their parents' basements, pushed off marriage and delayed having children, if they decided to have them at all. Just 47.9 per cent of U.S. millennials — the 72 million people born between 1981 and 1996 —owned homes in 2020, according to Apartment List analysis of census data.

For many, marriage and kids came eventually. But the pandemic was a watershed moment. Millennials flush with savings or simply desperate for space finally started making long-term acquisitions. Last year, the cohort accounted for more than half of home-purchase loan applications and bought more new cars than any other age group.

The key factor that could affect inflation isn't just demand but the size of the millennial population, which outpaced baby boomers in 2019 to become the largest U.S. generation. For years, the dominant macroeconomic themes have been deflationary: aging,fewer babies and automation. Those forces aren't going away, but we could see a multiyear spurt of spending driven by millennials.

One question may be whether millennials really have more money to spend, or whether they simply feel wealthier after two years of spectacular paper gains. “People who have money feel wealthy even though it's not realized wealth,” said Dan Ariely,a professor of psychology and behavioral economics at Duke University. “That's adding to the willingness to spend on all kinds of things.”

Millennials' spending spree won't last forever. In a decade, when the first wave turns 50, increased savings will help push interest rates lower, said Linda Nazareth, an economist and host of the podcast “Work and the Future.” By that point, the oldest Gen Zers will be in their prime homebuying years. Given the severity of the COVID downturn, their entry into financial adulthood could be just as delayed as the generation before them.

千禧一代正在成长。这些年来,从高空跳伞之行到适合在Instagram上晒照的秘鲁之旅,他们凡事都大手大脚。而现在,收入不错的30多岁年轻人把钱花在持久的东西上,购买汽车、房子和房子里面的一切。疫情期间远离办公室使他们更迫切地想安定下来,积累成年人该有的物品。

尽管新冠疫情时代的供应链中断是消费品价格飙升的主要诱因,但一种拖延已久、由人口结构驱动的消费转型也正在发生。这种转型将可能在供应链问题得以解决且疫情平息很久以后,助推通胀上涨。

想一想尚未开发的消费能力吧。众所周知,在全球金融危机后,背负学生贷款压力的千禧一代纷纷搬入父母家的地下室,推迟结婚生子——即使他们决定要婚姻和孩子。根据“公寓清单”网站对人口普查数据的分析,2020年,47.9%的千禧一代——1981至1996年出生的7200万人——已拥有房产。

许多人最终会结婚生子。但新冠疫情是一道分水岭。存款充裕或只是渴望空间的千禧一代终于开始购买着眼长远的东西。去年,这个群体占了购房贷款申请的一半以上,购买新车的数量也超过其他年龄群体。

影响通胀的重要因素不仅是需求,还有千禧一代的人口规模。2019年,千禧一代超过婴儿潮一代,成为美国人口最多的一代。多年来,占主导地位的宏观经济主题都围绕通货紧缩:人口老龄化,新生儿减少,还有自动化。这些因素不会消失,但我们可能会看到由千禧一代推动的、持续数年的“井喷式”消费。

是千禧一代真的有更多钱可以花了,还是过去两年可观的账面收益让他们感觉自己更富有了?这也许是个问题。杜克大学心理学和行为经济学教授丹·阿里利说:“有钱能让人感觉自己富有,即使是尚未兑现的财富。”他说:“这让人更愿意在各种东西上花钱。”

千禧一代的消费热潮不会永远持续下去。经济学家、播客“工作与未来”的主持人琳达·纳萨雷特说,十年后,当这个群体的第一波人50岁时,储蓄的增加将推动利率下降。到那时,年龄最大的Z世代将处于买房的黄金年龄。考虑到新冠疫情引发经济下滑的严重程度,他们也许会像上一代人一样推迟在经济意义上长大成人。(刘白云译自2月16日彭博新闻社网站)

凡注明“来源:参考消息网”的所有作品,未经本网授权,不得转载、摘编或以其他方式使用。